When Suvenkar Sen, Managing Director of Senco Gold warned that the upcoming Dhanteras festival could see a dip in volume sales, investors were already scrambling. On , the day before Dhanteras, 24‑carat gold in Bhubaneswar breached the ₹1,24,000 mark for 10 grams, with some traders pushing it to ₹1,34,800. In Hyderabad, the same‑day rates were ₹13,086 per gram for 24 K, ₹11,995 for 22 K and ₹9,814 for 18 K (often billed as 999 gold). The surge has turned a traditional buying‑blessing into a high‑stakes market gamble.
Record‑High Gold Prices Headlining Dhanteras 2025
The festive day, Dhanteras 2025India, traditionally sparks a rush for gold and silver. But this year the price spike is unlike anything seen in the last decade. Analysts point to three converging forces:
- U.S. credit‑market anxiety and a weakening dollar, which have historically made investors flock to safe‑haven metals.
- Speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut rates later in 2025, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets.
- Ongoing geopolitical tension between the United States and China, keeping gold in the global risk‑off spotlight.
All three factors were cited by Darshan Desai, Chief Executive Officer of Aspect Bullion & Refinery as the primary drivers behind today’s record run.
Jewelers’ Forecasts: Volume Down, Value Up
Facing a price point that now sits above ₹13,000 per gram for 24 K, many retailers expect shoppers to pivot toward lighter‑weight pieces and lower‑carat designs. Sameet Guha, Managing Director and CEO of MMTC‑PAMP noted a surge in demand for 999.9‑purity bullion bars and coins, saying, "Investors are treating gold as a short‑term hedge rather than a jewelry purchase this year." The consensus among major chains is a 15‑20 % dip in sheer volume sales on Dhanteras, but a 25 % rise in high‑value transactions – essentially, fewer pieces, but each costing more. This shift mirrors the 2022‑2023 pattern when price spikes forced a preference for gold ornaments under 5 grams.
Regional Sales Projections and Economic Impact
Delhi’s market analysts project a "gold rain" of ₹12,000‑₹15,000 crore during the festive window, up 30‑50 % from last year’s ₹8,000‑₹10,000 crore. The capital’s high‑end boutiques anticipate that the bulk of this uplift will come from bullion purchases rather than traditional jewelry. In contrast, tier‑2 cities such as Bhubaneswar and Hyderabad are seeing a sharper tilt toward affordable, low‑carat designs, as consumers try to stay within tighter budgets.
Supply‑chain chatter indicates a modest shortfall in silver bullion “silvers” (coins and bars), as mints scramble to meet the spike in demand. This could force a minor price premium on silver by early November, adding another layer of complexity for jewellers who traditionally pair gold with silver accents.
What Lies Ahead: Risks and Opportunities
Looking beyond the festival, experts warn that the gold market remains vulnerable to two major headwinds. First, any unexpected easing of U.S. credit stress could see a rapid dollar rebound, pulling gold prices lower. Second, a de‑escalation in U.S.–China trade talks could restore investor confidence in equities, diverting money away from safe‑haven metals.
On the upside, continued fiscal stimulus in India and a festive season that stretches into Diwali could sustain demand for both bullion and jewelry. As Suvenkar Sen summed up, "If the price correction stays gradual, we may see a healthy balance between investment buying and traditional gifting—a win‑win for the industry."
Frequently Asked Questions
How will the high gold prices affect average Indian households during Dhanteras?
Most middle‑income families are likely to shift from buying heavy gold jewelry to lighter pieces or pure bullion. This keeps the cultural tradition alive while staying within tighter budgets, as evidenced by early preorder data from Delhi’s mid‑range jewelers.
What are the main global factors driving today’s gold price surge?
Analysts point to three key drivers: lingering U.S. credit‑market stress, a weaker U.S. dollar, and the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut later in 2025. Together they have pushed investors toward gold as a hedge.
Will the surge in bullion demand hurt the supply of gold jewelry?
Not significantly. While bullion accounts for a larger share of sales this year, jewelers still receive regular allocations from refiners. However, lower‑carat and lightweight designs are expected to dominate storefronts.
What risks could cause gold prices to fall after the festive season?
A sudden improvement in U.S. credit markets, a strong dollar rebound, or a de‑escalation of geopolitical tensions could all pull investors out of gold, prompting a price correction as early as December.
Are there any alternative traditional purchases people consider if gold is too pricey?
Yes. Some shoppers are opting for small quantities of coriander seeds—an odd yet auspicious tradition believed to bring prosperity—costing as little as ₹5 per bunch. It’s seen as a budget‑friendly symbolic alternative.